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Banner Elk , NC
Weather Station located at the Banner Elk Town Hall

Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, February 8, 2023 at 6:11PM

Mild Work-week; Super Sunday Mischief

Mild temperatures are with us through Friday. Expect lots of cloudiness for the rest of the week. Some forecasts are easy; some are difficult; some are impossible. The weekend forecast is impossible. I steered it toward the average of guidance in intensity and timing but the standard deviation is huge. An upper-level develops in the Southeast Saturday forming a surface low along the Carolina Coast. Exactly where the system is located this weekend will determine our weather. Some rain is possible later Saturday. As the low intensifies, temperatures fall in the mountains producing the potential for snow Saturday night into Superbowl Sunday. Hypers will hype, don't help them. Just know that a significant winter weather event is possible Sunday but it is by no means certain!

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Wednesday

Hi: 55 Lo: 45

Increasing clouds; Maybe some spotty light rain; Light South wind becoming 10-20 mph
Thursday

Hi: 55 Lo: 40

Lots of clouds; Spotty light rain until evening; SSW wind 15-25 mph, gusting to 40, becoming West Thur. night
Friday

Hi: 54 Lo: 34

Lots of clouds; Still relatively mild; NW wind 5-15 mph becoming light Fri. night
Saturday

Hi: 42 Lo: 28

Mostly cloudy to cloudy; Light rain or snow possible in the afternoon; Snow or rain changing to snow Sat. night
Sunday

Hi: 33 Lo: 27

Cloudy; Snow possible through evening, maybe ending as light rain

Further Out

Monday - Mostly sunny Quickly warmer; High in the upper 40s; Low in the lower 30s
Tuesday - Increasing clouds; Mild temperatures; Rain developing Tue. night; High near 50 degrees; Low in the upper 30s

Forecast Discussion

A front is just to our north but will not make it to us before being repelled northward. A cold front to our west moves through late Thursday. Spotty light rain will be around Thursday.

Friday is a 'tweener with lots of clouds and mild temperatures. Spotty light rain is not impossible, but the potential is too remote to mention in the forecast box.

The motto in most forecast offices is "Never trust a closed low." That rule applies this weekend. An upper-level closed low forms this weekend in the Southeast spawning a surface low along the Carolina Coast. Timing and location details are unknowable and will determine our weather. Here's basically the middle of computer guidance... I cannot rule out some rain Saturday afternoon and evening. As the low intensifies, colder air develops in the mountain region changing precipitation to snow Saturday night and continuing into much of Sunday. The middle of guidance is a moderate snow event. Something bigger is possible, but nothing is possible as well. Don't buy or sell the hype. We have plenty of time to refine and prepare. If it snows, it will be like an early Spring snow event.

Quickly warmer temperatures follow Monday and Tuesday. Another front will be arriving from the north and west Tuesday with rain developing Tuesday night.

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