Forecast Last Updated at Friday, December 5, 2008 at 7:08AM

Chilly to Cold Weekend

Hope you enjoyed that surprisingly mild Thursday; that won't happen again for a while. Colder air returned last night with light rain changing to "snizzle" overnight (mix of drizzle and sleet/light snow). Expect a chilly Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be downright cold. Clouds will overtake the Southern Appalachians by noon Saturday with flurries possible in the afternoon. Saturday night will be blustery with snow showers (especially on the west side of the Appalachians right along the TN/NC line) and flurries (east). That light snow will be testing the speed gun propelled by gusty winds Saturday night and early Sunday. Don't expect a lot of snow Saturday night and early Sunday--a dusting to 1" for most of the mountain region but 1"-3" at higher elevations and along the western upslope.

The 2009 RWC Calendars are on sale now. $2 from the sale of every calendar will go to the Hospitality House Combined Campaign. Ray will be at Mast General Store in Boone Sunday (Dec. 7) 1-3 PM. Stop by to visit and have your calendar signed. Mast Store will donate an additional $4.95 to the Hospitality House for every calendar sold during this event. For more details see the Mast Store Press Release.

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Friday Hi: 24 Lo: 20 Partly cloudy; Cold; NW wind 5-15 mph becoming light tonight

Saturday Hi: 27 Lo: 13 Becoming cloudy; Afternoon flurries; Turning much colder at night with snow showers (west) and flurries (east); SW wind 5-15 mph during the day becoming NW 10-20 mph at night then 15-25 mph with gusts to 50 mph after midnight

Sunday Hi: 18 Lo: 13 Decreasing clouds; Maybe an AM snow flurry; Very cold; AM NW wind 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph, PM wind diminishing to 5-15 mph then light after midnight

Monday Hi: 31 Lo: 27 Mostly clear, but increasing clouds at night; Milder

Tuesday Hi: 36 Lo: 35 Cloudy; Rain maybe beginning as a brief period of freezing rain

Further Out

Wednesday - Cloudy; Rain; High in the lower 40s; Low in the upper 30s
Thursday - Mostly cloudy; Turning colder; Rain showers possibly ending as snow showers; High in the upper 30s; Low in the lower 20s

Forecast Discussion

We'll leave the November summary up one more day...
- The last two weeks of November were the third coldest on record. In Boone, the average temperatures for November 16-30, 2008, was 32.39°. The only colder years for that period were: 1950 at 28.82° and 1929 at 31.93°. Boone weather data goes back 80 years.
- With 5.7" of snow recorded in October and November this year, it was the 12th snowiest on record. The snowiest Oct-Nov ever in Boone was 1968 with 17.5", followed by 1930 with 10.7" and 1950 with 10". In contrast, 30 of the past 80 years have had no measurable snow in Oct-Nov.
- Mountaintop data does not go back far enough to make large generalizations; however, this has been the snowiest start to winter since they started keeping records at Fred's General Mercantile atop Beech 1992. In Oct-Nov this year, they recorded 16.1" of snow. The next snowiest was 1995 at 13". The average snowfall in Oct-Nov there since 1992 has been 4.6".

That ever-so-slow cold front moved through here around sunset Thursday. Colder air quickly followed changing light rain to a light wintry mix Thursday night. Expect a colder Friday with scattered clouds.

Saturday a clipper low will move through the Great Lakes. Here, a weak warm front will produce cloudy skies by noon. We will probably see a few flurries Saturday afternoon--nothing of great importance. A surge of much colder air will arrive Saturday night on blustery NW winds. With that, expect snow showers and flurries to develop. Accumulations will be light if at all. We're thinking 1"-3" at higher elevations and western upslope areas but only a dusting to 1" for most of our area. This will end as flurries Sunday morning. Sunday will be a very cold day.

Moderating temperatures will be in store Monday with lots of sun (moderation beginning Sunday night at higher elevations). But clouds will increase Monday night.

The Tuesday through Thursday time frame is full of timing questions. An upper-level low will track from the Southwest US into the Southeast during this period. Surface low pressure will run in front of the upper-level low and the Gulf will be tapped for a significant rain event in the Southeast. That much we are confident about. The questions lie in how quickly this system will move across the Southeast and how much cold air will get involved on the west side of the system. Here's our compromise thinking... Rain develops Tuesday possible beginning as a brief period of freezing rain especially east near the Blue Ridge. Tuesday through Wednesday will be rainy with precipitation ending Thursday possibly as snow showers.

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The 2009 RaysWeather.Com Calendar

The 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar is the best yet! Featuring 16 stunning photos from the annual Raysweather.com photo contest, weather station locations and sponsors including updated map, record high and low temperatures for six High County cities, and daily normals for the foothills to the mountain tops. All the weather info you need packaged up beautifully.

$2 from every calendar purchased will be donated to the Hospitality House of Boone--a crisis intervention agency assisting adults and families in homeless situations. Hospitality House serves Ashe, Avery, Allegheny, Mitchell, Wilkes, Watauga, and Yancey Counties.

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Calendars also available from these fine merchants:

Boone area
• Shoppes at Farmers Hardware
• Mast General Store
• Footsloggers
• Highland Newstand
• Outersanctum Salon
• County Inn and Suites
• Stick Boy Bread Company
• Bare Essentials
• Conrad's Coffee
• Dan'l Boone Inn
• ASU Bookstore
• Mountain Lumber
Banner Elk/Newland area
• Ericks Wine and Cheese
• Foscoe Fishing
• Mountain Jewelers
• Avery Pharmacy
• Cannon Memorial Hospital Gift Shop
• Fred's General Merchantile
Jefferson area
• Sallie Mae's Emporium