Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, May 17, 2012 at 6:59AM

Watch the Back Door

We escaped the rain Wednesday (in spite of lightning flashing Wednesday evening to our east in the Foothills). We start Thursday with pleasant weather and lots of sun; however, a back door front (from the north) will move through this afternoon producing scattered showers and thundershowers lasting into the evening hours. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler Friday and Saturday as drier air noses its way south out of New England. Only isolated thundershowers are expected Friday afternoon, and hopefully we can hold on for a dry Saturday.

Thursday Hi: 70 Lo: 49 Increasing PM clouds; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; Light north wind becoming SE this afternoon & tonight

Friday Hi: 66 Lo: 46 Partly cloudy; An isolated afternoon shower or t-shower possible; SE wind 5-10 mph

Saturday Hi: 67 Lo: 45 Lots of sunshine; Pleasant May temperatures; Light SE wind

Sunday Hi: 67 Lo: 48 More PM clouds; Cannot rule out a PM shower

Monday Hi: 68 Lo: 50 Mostly to partly cloudy; Cannot rule out showers

Further Out

Tuesday - Increasing PM clouds; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; High near 70 degrees; Low in the lower 50s
Wednesday - Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered PM showers & t-showers; High in the upper 60s; Low in the lower 50s

Forecast Discussion

A backdoor front from the north will slide through North Carolina today. Expect a clear/pleasant morning; however clouds will increase this afternoon with scattered showers and thundershowers developing this afternoon lasting into the evening hours. Temperatures will be around or slightly above Wednesday levels.

Drier air behind the front associated with high pressure centered in New England will nose southward between the Appalachians and Coastal regions. It will reduce afternoon thundershower coverage to "isolated" and probably give us a dry Saturday. Temperatures both days will be pleasant, a couple degrees cooler than today.

Remnants of the front that moved through here Monday are now stalled just off the Atlantic Seaboard from New England to Georgia. It will be the breading ground for lows for the next 6-7 days. Exactly when/where these lows will develop is unknowable at this point. In particular, there's much question about a weak area of low pressure that will develop Saturday and move north early next week. Will it be far enough inland to affect our weather? Don't know, but we have to include that in the realm of possibility this morning. Thus the "cannot rule out" wording for showers Sunday afternoon into Monday. Also, if the low stays well to our east, then we'll have more sun and warmer temperatures than depicted above.

By Tuesday, we'll be in a warmer, southerly flow as the next front approaches from west in a weakened form. Scattered mostly PM showers and thundershowers are expected.

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