NWS Winter Weather Advisory (Avery County)

Current Conditions
Sugar Mtn

Temp: 38.5°F

Forecast Last Updated at Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 5:31PM

Showers Around, Flurries Up Top

Rain has already started across the High Country earlier this afternoon, and with that, our mild temps have begun to cool down just a bit. For elevations above 4000', flurries and snow showers will be mixed in with rain this evening. Rain will continue through Sunday night into Monday morning as an approaching cold front passes through around sunrise. Once the colder air moves in Monday morning, we’ll see rain change over to snow showers. Snow showers will hang around into the early evening, with some flurries sticking around overnight.

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Sunday Hi: 43 Lo: 33 Cloudy; Light rain, Flurries mix in above 4000'; SW wind 5-10 mph (except 20-30 mph up top)

Monday Hi: 30 Lo: 12 Mostly cloudy; Daytime snow showers & flurries; Decreasing clouds at night with flurries; Colder; NW wind 10-20 mph, gusts to 40 mph

Tuesday Hi: 34 Lo: 24 Few clouds; Cold; NW wind 5-15 mph, 5-10 mph late

Wednesday Hi: 43 Lo: 27 Partly cloudy, Increasing PM clouds;

Thursday Hi: 31 Lo: 18 Cloudy; Snow showers, flurries & showers last into the overnight hours

Further Out

Friday - Clearing skies; Rather cold; High in the upper 20s; Low in the upper teens
Saturday - Mostly clear; Bit more mild; High in the upper 30s; Low in the lower 20s

Forecast Discussion

High pressure is quickly exiting eastern NC this evening as a low pressure system approaches from the west. This evening, the low has moved into the western side of the Ohio Valley, by sunrise tomorrow, the low will to sit our north over western PA with the associated cold front moving over us.

Rain showers moved into western NC this afternoon ahead of the cold front, and will stick around through the overnight hours. For areas above 4000' snow showers and flurries will be mixed in this evening and overnight. Early Monday morning, once the cold front passes over the High Country, we’ll see rain change over to snow showers with a noticeable drop in temperatures. Snow showers will last from sunrise Monday into the early evening. Flurries and snow showers will continue Monday night into early Tuesday under NW’ly flow. Overall, we do not expect much accumulation beyond 1” in the valleys through Monday with 1-2” along the higher elevations and westward facing slopes.

Tuesday, high pressure builds over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic with cool temperatures and clear skies. High pressure sticks around through Wednesday as a disturbance passes through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes to our north. We may see a few stray clouds early Wednesday from that disturbance but any precipitation is unlikely. Overnight Wednesday, we will see clouds build in from our next system along the Gulf.

High pressure retreats over the Atlantic early Thursday as the next developing low pressure system sets up along the Gulf coast. For the moment, model guidance suggests we will begin to see snow showers Thursday morning, which really depends on the speed of this system. Snow showers will likely continue through Thursday into early Friday. It is a bit too early to nail down potential snowfall totals just yet.

Friday, high pressure builds into the MS Valley and into TN behind the low with much colder air. We’ll clear out by Friday afternoon once the low system takes a hike out to sea. Saturday, high pressure pushes east over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, allowing clear skies to settle in for the weekend.

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