Forecast Last Updated at Friday, April 18, 2014 at 12:38PM

Add Clouds; Maybe a Few Showers Tonight/Saturday

An upper-level low moving across the Gulf Coast States, with an associated surface low moving east along the Gulf Coast, complicates our forecast greatly. Skies are cloudy today, and temperatures remain much cooler than average for mid April. Spotty light rain is possible tonight, Saturday, and into Saturday evening. There will be more rain south (Avery County and points south) than north (Ashe County and into SW VA). We'll see the sun Easter Sunday, and temperatures will rebound accordingly.

Friday Hi: 52 Lo: 39 Cloudy; Cool; Spotty light rain possible tonight; Light East wind (but NE 10-20 mph at higher elev's tonight)

Saturday Hi: 55 Lo: 39 Overcast; Cool; Periods of light rain or drizzle possible through evening; NE wind 5-15 mph becoming light at night (except still gusty up top)

Sunday Hi: 61 Lo: 38 More sun & warmer for Easter; East wind 5-15 mph becoming light at night

Monday Hi: 68 Lo: 47 Increasing PM clouds; Pleasant temperatures

Tuesday Hi: 65 Lo: 37 Generally cloudy day; Daytime showers, maybe a t-shower; Decreasing clouds & colder Tue. night

Further Out

Wednesday - Sunshine; Cooler; High in the mid 50s; Low in the lower 30s
Thursday - Sunny; Warmer; High in the mid 60s; Low in the lower 40s

Forecast Discussion

Computer guidance is all over the place regarding rain late Friday through Saturday evening. We sided with drier solutions, but to be honest I'm not sure if we should have zigged or zagged. But here's what we think is the best story-line at this point...

An upper-level low moves east through the Southeast today and into the Western Atlantic Sunday. Associated with the upper-level low is a surface low moving east along the Gulf Coast. The surface low will be just east of Jacksonville FL by late Saturday. It's a slow-mover with a large area of clouds. The big question is how far north the rain goes. We think we'll be on the northeast fringe of the precipitation shield. So the forecast is for clouds today through Saturday with spotty light rain possible tonight though Saturday evening. Clouds and that light rain will keep temperatures unseasonably cool.

That system will be far enough to our southeast Easter Sunday with high pressure building in from the north over us, giving us more sun and a rebound in temperatures. Monday will be even warmer, but clouds increase in the afternoon and overnight.

The next front from the west moves through Tuesday with showers (maybe a thundershower). Temperatures remain pleasant ahead of the front, but it will become much cooler Tuesday night.

Computer guidance also differs regarding how cold it will be after the front moves through. We sided with colder. Wednesday will be much cooler, then temperatures quickly moderate Thursday. Both days will have plenty of sun.

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