Current Conditions
Elk River East

Temp: 40.3°F

Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, January 23, 2020 at 10:50AM

Ready, Set, Go

The wintry mix to rain trend that's occurred on multiple occasions this winter is set to begin again tonight. This time around, however, it is followed by a prolonged period of flurries and snow showers Saturday to Sunday. Also, the tricky part of this equation lies in the fact the ground is much colder than previous events.

Freezing rain develops around midnight and continues into Friday morning before changing over to rain. Cold holdouts along the Blue Ridge escarpment will contend with freezing rain for a few hours longer than the rest of us. This will not be a major ice storm, but it will be a slick in paces early Friday morning before the changeover. Rain will be moderate to even heavy at times Friday afternoon and ends Friday evening.

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Thursday Hi: 43 Lo: 28 Partly sunny with thickening clouds late; Freezing rain to rain late tonight; Light SE wind, but becoming windy at higher elev's Thur. night

Friday Hi: 39 Lo: 28 Cloudy; Rain, heavy in the PM; Some freezing rain early AM; Flurries return late Fri. night; SE wind 5-15 mph, but very windy at higher elev's, becoming NW late Fri. night

Saturday Hi: 35 Lo: 24 Mostly cloudy & cold; Snow showers or flurries; NW wind 10-20 mph & gusty

Sunday Hi: 37 Lo: 24 Mostly cloudy; Cold; Snow showers or flurries; Blustery

Monday Hi: 38 Lo: 25 Partly cloudy; Chilly

Further Out

Tuesday - Mostly clear; Seasonal temperatures; High in the lower 40s; Low in the upper 20s
Wednesday - Becoming cloudy; A wintry mix or snow developing Wed. afternoon or evening; High in the upper 30s; Low in the upper 20s

Forecast Discussion

Modified Arctic high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast today creating a chilly wedge along the spine of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, low pressure spinning through the Midwest today and into the Ohio valley Friday sends moisture atop the cold air. Clouds thicken this afternoon and freezing rain develops around midnight changing to a cold rain Friday morning. A thin glaze of ice, especially in sheltered valleys and along the Blue Ridge escarpment is with us until the changeover occurs. The marginally cold air will hold on a little longer for the eastern slopes, but it's all rain tomorrow afternoon and it will be moderate to heavy at times. Rain ends Friday night followed by a few quiet hours.

Cue the northwest flow portion of the event. As the low moves northeast colder air arrives after midnight Saturday morning with flurries to snow showers developing and continuing on and off at times through Sunday. Both days are chilly and blustery. Snowfall totals are in the dusting range for most of us, but a couple of inches will tally up for the highest westward facing slopes closer to the TN/NC line over the course of two days.

Monday and Tuesday are quiet as high pressure builds over the Southeast. However, I am keeping my eye on low pressure that develops and remains in the northern Gulf. If it can send moisture a little further northward we may contend with more flurries Monday, but I've tabled that idea for now.

Another meaningful area of low pressure develops to our southwest Wednesday heading northeast towards the Ohio Valley. Moisture returns late Wednesday as a wintry mix or light snow and continues Thursday. Perhaps that one turns into something worthy of sledding :-).

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