Forecast Last Updated at Sunday, March 21, 2010 at 6:45AM

Reality Check

If you were hoping for Friday and Saturday's weather to continue, you can either live the next 72 hours in denial or bravely face the reality of Spring in the Southern Appalachians. Keep reading only if you are ready to "make reality your friend".
Clouds will increase this morning and rain will develop this afternoon. Rain will be heavy at times tonight with 1"+ likely especially along the eastern escarpment of the Appalachians. Even some thunder is possible overnight. You say, "Okay. I can handle that." But there's more... Monday will bring falling temperatures with rain showers changing to snow showers especially at higher elevations. Snow showers will reach even below 3000' by Monday night. Tuesday will begin with snow showers but transition to light rain and drizzle during the day. Accumulations... 4000-foot+ areas could pick up 2"-4" by mid-day Tuesday; 3000'-4000' areas can expect a dusting to 2"; below 3000" only a brief covering Monday night. One word of warning: This is an upper-level low--our internal words of wisdom in this situation are "never trust an upper-level low". Drizzle will end Tuesday evening, and quickly milder weather will arrive Wednesday.

Sunday Hi: 53 Lo: 45 Becoming cloudy; Rain developing in the afternoon, heavy at times tonight; Light wind becoming SE 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph at night at higher elev's

Monday Hi: 47 Lo: 26 Mostly cloudy; Turning colder; Rain showers changing to snow showers especially at higher elev's; South wind 10-20 mph becoming NW & gusty at night

Tuesday Hi: 42 Lo: 32 Generally cloudy; Light AM snow/rain showers; Light PM rain or drizzle; Chilly; NW wind 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph

Wednesday Hi: 60 Lo: 32 Lots of sun; Quickly milder

Thursday Hi: 59 Lo: 40 Increasing PM clouds; Continued mild

Further Out

Friday - Cloudy; Showers; High in the lower 50s; Low in the upper 30s
Saturday - Mostly to partly cloudy; Cooler; High in the lower 50s; Low in the lower 30s

Forecast Discussion

A surface low with associated front will move across the Mississippi River this morning reaching Western NC early Monday morning. The real issue however is the upper-level low driving this system. It will move out of northeast Texas to central Mississippi this evening, then across Western North Carolina Monday night. This is a small but vigorous system with lots of cold air aloft. We can expect skies to become cloudy this morning with rain developing this afternoon. Rain will be heavy at times tonight with some thunder possible. Then Monday, temperatures will fall through the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy (beware, any sun will only add fuel to this engine) with rain showers changing to snow showers in the afternoon and Monday night. Snow levels will gradually drop from higher elevations to even below 3000' by Monday night. Some vigorous snow showers will be possible especially late Monday and Monday night.

As this system pulls quickly northeast Tuesday, expect chilly, blustery weather with snow showers changing back to rain showers and drizzle. Drizzle will end Tuesday evening.

Temperatures will be quickly warmer Wednesday as skies become mostly sunny by afternoon. Thursday looks mild as well; however, clouds will increase in the afternoon and overnight.

The next front will move through Friday with showers and much cooler temperatures Friday night. Saturday looks cooler but dry with mostly to partly cloudy skies.

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