Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 6:54AM

A Weekend to Remember

An upper low will pull away from us today as high pressure gradually strengthens over much of the eastern US. Across the Southern Appalachians, it’s going to be a beautiful weekend with plentiful sunshine and seasonably pleasant Fall temperatures. The good times last through Monday before the “cold air damming” machine starts pumping in Atlantic moisture, bringing clouds, drizzle and fog beginning on Tuesday. These murky, unsettled conditions will last much of the rest of the week.

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Saturday Hi: 60 Lo: 42 Early morning fog, then sunshine; Pleasant; West wind 5-10 mph

Sunday Hi: 61 Lo: 45 Mostly sunny; Beautiful first Oct. weekend; Light NW wind

Monday Hi: 61 Lo: 46 Few clouds; Pleasant; Light SE wind

Tuesday Hi: 66 Lo: 50 Becoming mostly cloudy; Cannot rule out patchy light rain or drizzle

Wednesday Hi: 63 Lo: 48 Mostly cloudy; Areas of Blue Ridge fog and drizzle

Further Out

Thursday - Mostly cloudy; Areas of Blue Ridge fog and drizzle persist; High in the mid 50s; Low in the mid 40s
Friday - More sun, depending on Matthew's track; High in the upper 50s; Low in the mid 40s

Forecast Discussion

As expected, the upper low that brought all the excitement last week will lift to the north today, and then hook off to the east across New England. The low will continue to bring drier, continental air into the region through the weekend, resulting in beautiful Fall days. There may be some patchy valley fog in the mornings, and we’ll see some puffy cumulus clouds in the afternoons, but that’s it.

High pressure builds across the Northeast states early next week, quickly nosing down the East Coast in a classical “cold air damming” configuration. It’s funny to think that upper lows will bring better weather than high pressure, but in this case is true. For as the ridge builds in, easterly flow off the Atlantic will bring ample moisture into the region starting on Tuesday.

We’re still not sure if the worst of the drizzle and fog will be confined to the morning hours. That may be the case on Tuesday. But by Wednesday and Thursday we’re looking at considerably more clouds and drizzle than sun. Interestingly, if hurricane Matthew tracks closer to the coast, this could result in better weather by Thursday.

As for Matthew, it’s now a powerful category 4 hurricane over the south-central Caribbean. It’s currently moving slowly westward, and we expect a northward turn later today. The tropical cyclone will likely impact portions of western Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. The Bahamas will be affected as we move into next week, and maybe the Carolina coast thereafter.

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