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NWS Winter Weather Advisory (Avery County)

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Banner Elk , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Monday, January 27, 2020 at 6:51AM

Elevation Dependent Snow

It's a busy week in the weather department until next Sunday. Today's disruptive weather is mainly a player for higher elevations (around and above 3800') where temperatures remain shy of freezing through the day and precipitation stays all snow. Snowfall totals "up there" tally in the 1"-3" range by tonight when precipitation ends. The rest of us have a light rain/snow mix with surface temperatures not conducive for accumulations much above a dusting. Obviously this scenario is about as borderline as it gets, but I don't expect any wild surprises.
Tuesday and Wednesday are quietly chilly with more light snow making a brief appearance Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

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Hi: 40 Lo: 25

Cloudy; Light snow/rain mix, mainly rain; Ending as light snow to flurries tonight; NW wind 5-15 mph, gusty at night

Hi: 39 Lo: 24

Partly cloudy; Chilly; NW wind 5-15 mph

Hi: 39 Lo: 25

Generally cloudy; Late afternoon/evening flurries to light snow overnight; Light wind

Hi: 38 Lo: 27

Partly to mostly cloudy; Perhaps some lingering AM flurries; Chilly

Hi: 41 Lo: 27

Increasing clouds; Rain or a wintry mix possible Fri. night

Further Out

Saturday - Cloudy; Rain or a wintry mix possible changing to snow and ending late Saturday night; High in the lower 40s; Low in the upper 20s
Sunday - Partly cloudy; Seasonal; High in the mid 40s; Low near 30 degrees

Forecast Discussion

The last week of January lives up to its billing in some regards with plenty of excitement. However, there's more talk than action outside of the higher elevations. Two fast disturbances produces wintry precipitation today and again Wednesday night. The final disturbance is a little more robust Friday night into Saturday, but the details still remain somewhat of a mystery.

First up today, it's all snow above 3800' with 1"-3" falling this morning through tonight. Below that threshold it's a rain/snow mix, but mainly rain as surface temperatures climb well above freezing during the day. As temperatures fall this evening what little moisture remains ends as light snow and flurries across the board.

Tuesday and Wednesday are quiet. Another disturbance moves along the Gulf Coast Wednesday with the northern extent of moisture stretching into the region Wednesday night. Flurries develop late Wednesday afternoon or evening with light snow ending Thursday morning. This round is not elevation dependent, but it's fast and there's not much moisture in play.

A much more potent area of low pressure develops in the northern Gulf Friday heading northeast. Does it stay far enough south to preclude any meaningful precipitation? That is the big question and the trend is in that direction. However, we'll play the middle of the road game until the answer is clear. I have light rain to a wintry mix developing Friday night and continuing Saturday before ending as snow overnight into Sunday morning.


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